With economic and political circumstances continuing to make housing development a difficult sell in Los Angeles, residential permitting has continued to decline over the course of 2024, according to a new report from Hilgard Analytics and Zenith Economics.
The report, which cites data from the Department of Building and Safety, found that a total of 6,907 residential units were permitted citywide over the first three quarters of 2024 - of January to September. That means 30.7 percent fewer homes were permitted compared to same period last year, or a decline of 3,055 units. Through the first two quarters of the year, the decline had been approximately 18.9 percent.
"Not only have interest rates remained high by recent historical standards, but also disincentives provided by Measure ULA, alongside many other local housing policies, have compounded to negatively impact housing permitting rates within the City," states the report by Joshua Baum of Hilgard Analytics and Samuel Maury-Holmes of Zenith Economics. "Additionally, many developers are sitting on the sidelines to see the outcome of Proposition 33, a potential repeal of the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which is on the state ballot next month."
The report cautions that even a turnaround in economic conditions - such as through further cuts to interest rates - are unlikely to help Los Angeles address its housing and homelessness issues in the near-term future.
As with As with previous editions of the report, it was found that not all areas of the city have seen a significant declines.
Council Districts 3, 6, 7, and 12 in the San Fernando Valley have all seen sharp increases in housing construction. Steep drop-offs were seen in Council Districts 1, 4, 8, 10, 13, 14, and 15 have all shown noticeable declines. Council Districts 2, 5, 9, and 11 - which ranges from Studio City, to South Los Angeles, to the Westside - have seen either modest declines or slight increases.
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